An Unexpected Surge of Optimism?

Recently I had the opportunity to participate in a panel talk in front of a most illustrious audience in Vienna, which became Davos for that week as it hosted a session of the World Economic Forum. This extraordinary organization aims to bring together world political, business and intellectual leaders to discuss contemporary matters of the global economy and our societies. It was a very stimulating experience: every word has a special weight when the audience is responsible for such a big chunk of the world’s GDP, either economically or politically.

As we were supposed to talk about the future of Europe, the omens could hardly have been any gloomier: Austria temporarily reinitiated border control suspending the Schengen practice, in order to ensure the security of the event. The Treaty of Schengen, the actual elimination of the internal borders of Europe and the common European currency are the two most spectacular accomplishments of the European integration. I was there in Vienna, the borders were back around us, and we came to discuss the chances of survival of the Euro amidst all news coming up on a daily basis about the debt crises of the monetary union. Well, I would not have expected the talk to go in the optimistic way it did eventually.

My panel was called “Stress test for Europe”, and the people I sat with included a bright foreign policy expert from Britain, an Italian financial expert and a renowned Dutch economist, of whom only the latter was over his forties. As the end of the fifty-something minutes under the spotlight drew closer, the moderator, representing Associated Press, expressed his surprise (flavoured probably with a tiny bit of disappointment) that we did not bring up our own doomsday scenarios and sinister prophecies.

In fact I came with the opinion that the problem of Europe is not the economy, it is something else – which is in one sense good news (as economies almost always heal slowly and painfully from big busts), but in other sense it is bad, as in order to provide a remedy, people first have to settle over the diagnose. I think Europe is stress-tested, as the name of the panel suggested, not much in a financial way, but in terms of visionary power and political leadership. The fundamentals are intact; history just requires Europe to follow a common rhythm: choose unity, innovation and competitiveness over dissension, anxiety and falling behind.

Though each of us formulated it according to his own subject, we were in agreement over the main message. Very valuable thoughts were developed: It was mentioned that the main problem is political legitimacy, that leaders are supposed to solve an economic distress without a clear political mandate and they fail to outline the possible choices to the voters who are supposed to pay the costs eventually. People keep talking about a crisis of Europe when the debt problem affects a part of Europe whose economic weight accounts for a proportion of the EU’s economy similar to that of the state of Wyoming to the United States. The wealth at stake is incomparable to the wealth created by the common market. In sum: all numbers say that Europe is strong. It is the biggest market, and a “club” of the most developed societies. The economy can be fixed on the short term, but what Europe needs on the long term is a vision for a common future. A more open Europe, where decisions are not made over voters’ heads; policy choices are very well explained to voters who make the final calls. A Europe, which as a political community of independent nations can live up to its joint economic strength on the world political scene. This is what people at the panel envisaged, and, which is more, expected. This is the kind of Europe Montenegro wants to join. And this is the kind of Europe Montenegro wants to contribute to through its economical performance, and social and cultural values. Only a stronger and more open Montenegro can be a strong part of a more open Europe. That’s why we have to restructure our society by implementing reforms and strengthening our competitiveness.

In one sense we are reassuring Europe in these hard times. The fact that we want to, and will join the club shows them that they still are a community which offers enormous advantages to its members, in terms of peaceful coexistence, cultural richness and economic progress. As the great goal of peacefully bringing together the nations of Europe is not yet achieved entirely, enlargement is a genuine vital sign of the European integration. Now with the progress Croatia made, the renewal of Serbian hopes to get candidate status by the end of the year, and of course, with the confirmation that accession talks with Montenegro may start very soon, Europe has shown its vitality. Optimism about the common future is more than justified.

Popis stanovništva: Evropskim standardima protiv “usađenog nepovjerenja”

Kao ekonomista, još sam na fakultetu naučio da se dobre političke odluke moraju zasnivati na pouzdanim podacima. Iako sam zagovornik kvalitativne analize da bi predvidjeli mogući ishod određene odluke, često je potrebno osloniti se na obilje podataka koji odražavaju bogatstvo, ukuse, navike ili broj stanovnika. Razumijevanje sklonosti naših građana je suština. Popis je upravo proistekao iz ove potrebe za procjenom. Dugoročno gledano, bilo bi nemoguće osmisliti fer pravila ili čak odgovarajući budžet bez popisnih podataka.

Crna Gora je započela svoj prvi popis stanovništva od ponovnog sticanja nezavisnosti. Ne mogu opisati koliko je ovo značajan momenat za Crnu Goru. Naveo bih samo jedan primjer. Danas se u najvećoj mjeri uspješnost funkcionisanja jedne države utvrđuje na osnovu promjena makroekonomskih indikatora, kao što je BDP po glavi stanovnika, stopa zaposlenosti ili nezaposlenosti. Stoga, kako bi sve te pokazatelje pravilno procijenili, morate raspolagati određenim podacima, na primjer, koliko ljudi živi unutar granica, kao i broj radno aktivnog stanovništva. U nedostatku pouzdanih podataka, moramo se osloniti samo na procjene demografskih kretanja, ali postoji velika vjerovatnoća da nas to odvede na pogrešan put.

Ipak, neki građani su zabrinuti zbog popisa. Ukoliko je neko zabrinut, on postaje obazriviji nego inače. Ovo je idealna prilika da se pojedine političke platforme okoriste lažnim tvrdnjama. Ali sa druge strane, to je i idealna prilika za nas da opovrgnemo te pogrešne tvrdnje.

Prvo i najvažnije: popis je alatka koja se koristi u statističke svrhe u cilju poboljšanja rada države (i samih istraživača, u stvari) obezbjeđivanjem neophodnih podataka za ekonomsku, socijalnu i sve ostale politike. Kako ćemo znati gdje da izgradimo novu školu ako ne znamo kolika je gustina naseljenosti i koliko je djece? Dobra statistika potvrđuje koliko su se određene političke odluke pokazale ispravnim u praksi i obezbjeđuje stručna znanja. U nedostatku adekvatnih podataka; sve odluke zavise od političkih lobija.

Drugo: ruke MONSTAT-a su potpuno vezane međunarodnim statističkim standardima, metodologijom Eurostat – a, preporukama UN – a i činjenicom da njegov rad prate nezavisni subjekti. Argumenti da se iza aktivnosti MONSTAT –a krije prevara, značili bi da je Evropa odobrila tu istu prevaru. Kao što MONSTAT sa pravom ističe: „popis ne predstavlja zavjeru za stvaranje orvelovske tiranije”. Istovremeno, svjestan sam da je premijer koji negira teoriju zavjere upravo premijer kakvog ljudi koji se bave teorijom zavjere najviše vole. „Zar ne vidite? On to negira!”

Ostavimo to po strani i pređimo na stvar! Većina političkih kritika u vezi sa popisom odnosi se na pitanja u kojima građani treba da se izjasne o svojoj nacionalnoj pripadnosti i vjeroispovjesti. Mi, manje srećni Evropljani i naš kontinent bili smo svjedoci etničkog nasilja i najgorih slučajeva zloupotrebe političke vlasti. „Usađeno nepovjerenje” je eufemizam kada nepoznati ljudi kucaju na naša vrata i postavljaju pitanja o nacionalnoj pripadnosti i vjeroispovjesti. Ipak, upitnici većine zemalja Evrope koje ove godine sprovode popis stanovništva, takođe, sadrže, ovu vrstu pitanja, i to ne samo zemlje zapadne Evrope već post-tranzicione demokratije kao što su Mađarska, Bugarska, Ruminija, Češka, Slovačka i Litvanija. Zašto? Ako ja ističem da sam Crnogorac, koji govori crnogorski i pravoslavne je vjeroispovjesti, onda to kažem jer se osjećam tako, a ne da bih promovisao prikupljanje podataka koji imaju za cilj zloupotrebu građana. Ukoliko ne želite da date te informacije, izaberite odgovor koji upravo to govori. Od vas se traži da to učinite kako niko ne bi bio u prilici da odgovori na pitanje na koje vi ne želite da odgovorite. I upravo zbog toga svaki građanin dobija potpisani primjerak upitnika popisa na samom kraju popisivanja. Kada je rađen posljednji popis u našoj zemlji, svaki dvadeseti Crnogorac je odlučio da ne odgovori na ova pitanja, i oni nisu pretrpjeli nikakve posljedice zbog takve odluke.

I poslednja stvar, ali ne manje važna. Pitanja koja su pokrenula najveću političku debatu nisu jedina i čak ni najbitnija pitanja na listi. Upitnik sadrži pitanja koja se odnose na uslove za život, zaposlenost, zdravstvo, energetstku efikasnost, obrazovanje, jer su sva ova pitanja važna za postizanje prosperitetnije budućnosti naše zemlje. Popis je od primarnog interesa za građane Crne Gore, a ne za državu i političare.

Census: With European standards against “established distrust”

As an economist I learned in the university benches that good policy decisions must be based on proper data. Although, I prefer qualitative analysis, to foresee any possible outcome of a decision, it has to be backed up by tons of numbers that mirror the wealth, the tastes, the habits, or the number of population. To understand the preferences of our people is the name of the game. Census was born out of this assessment need. Designing fair rules or even a suitable budget would be impossible without it on the long run.

Montenegro started its first census since regaining independence. I cannot say how important this moment is for us. Let me give you just one example. People nowadays to a very large extent determine the successfulness of their governments based on some macroeconomic variables, like the per capita GDP, the employment and the unemployment rates. Well, in order to assess all these stuff rightly, you have to know certain things, namely how many people live within our borders, and how many of them are of the working age. Without proper data collection, we must rely only on estimations about demographic trends, but we can be with a high chance led astray.

Still, some people are concerned about the census. If one is concerned, one opens his ears wider than they were before. This is the ideal opportunity for politics to drip false allegations But, on the other hand, an ideal opportunity for us to deny these false allegations.

First and foremost: census is a tool for statistical purposes aimed at ameliorating government’s (and researchers’, for that matter) work by providing the data needed for our economic, social and all kind of policies. How could we know where to build a new school, if the population density and the number of children are unknown? Good statistics prove the “reality-check” of political decisions, ensuring expertise. Without proper data; all decisions are in the hand on political lobbies.

Second: MONSTAT has its hands fully tied by international statistical standards, Eurostat methodology, UN recommendations and monitoring by independent parties. Arguing that MONSTAT is card-sharping would mean that Europe has approved the scam. As Monstat rigthly points out: „census not a secret plot to bring people under an Orwellian tyranny” but I am aware that a Prime Minister denying a conspiracy theory is the kind of Prime Minister conspiracy theorists like the most.  “Don’t you see? He is denying it!”

Let’s leave them alone and get to the point. Most of the political attacks against the census process came on the grounds of citizen’s being asked about their ethnic and religious identities. We, less lucky Europeans, have seen ethnic violence ourselves, and our continent witnessed the worst cases of misusing public authority.  “Established distrust” would be a euphemism when unknown people knock on our door and ask for our religious or national identity. Nevertheless, most of the European countries that hold census this year also include these kinds of questions, and not just Western countries but post-transition democracies such as Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Lithuania all do so. Why? If I point out that I am an orthodox Montenegrin who speaks Montenegrin language i do it because I feel so, not because I want to turn the data collection into abusing citizens preferences. If you do not want to disclose this information, you should go with the answer that exactly says this. You are required to do so in order that no one ticks in an answer you were not wanting to. That is also why every citizen gets a signed copy of the census questionnaire right at the end of the process. Last time a census was held in our country, one in every twenty Montenegrins opted for keeping information on these questions for themselves, and they suffered no disadvantage upon this decision.

Last but not least. The questions that sprung the most political debate are not the only and not even the most important questions in the list. Living conditions, employment, health issues, energy efficiency, education, they all are included. Because these questions are important to achieve a more prosperous future for our country. The census is the primary interest of Montenegrin citizens, and not of the state and politicians.

100 dana do nove ere u Crnoj Gori

Iz rаzlogа vjerovаtno poznаtim mojim istаknutim čitаocima, u posljednje vrijeme nisam imao vremenа dа objavim neki novi  post nа  blogu. Uglavnom sam iz hobija pisao o ekonomskim i političkim idejаmа. Dаnаs, izazovi sa kojima se suočаvam kao državni službenik su stavili u drugi plan moju pasiju аnаlitičаra i teoretičаra.

Nova administracija je preuzela kormilo Crne Gore, u trenutku velikih uspjeha i velikih iskušenjа sa kojima se suočavala nаša zemlja: ušli smo u predvorje Evropske unije u trenutku kada su naše domove pogodile nezapamćene poplave. Nаrod Crne Gore je u vrijeme katastrofalnih poplava pokаzаo veliku snаgu, odlučnost i jedinstvo. Mojа vlada će nastojati dа afirmiše vrijednosti  koje je njen narod tako nesebično pokаzаo.

Koje promjene možemo očekivati?

U politici je koncept “promjene” nejasno postavljen. U nedostatku smislenog konteksta, “promjena” je isprazna poštapalica. Moždа može pokrenuti nečiju mаštu, аli teško može imati politički smisao. Neću pokušavati da osvojim simpatije nonsensom. Zаto želim da na samom početku rаzjаsnim neke stvаri:

Bila mi je velikа čаst i profesionаlni izаzov dа budem potpredsjednik i ministar finansija u kabinetu bivšeg premijerа Milа Đukаnovićа. Nаjznačajnija lekcijа, koju sаm tokom ovih godinа, naučio je bilа kаko postаviti ciljeve i kako ih ostvariti kroz politiku. Vlada i ja bićemo i dalje posvećeni ostvarivanju istog cilja koji je moj prethodnik postavio: mirna i prosperitetna budućnost Crne Gore u EU.

Necu reći ništa novo ako ustvrdim da karakter jedne države određuje njen lider. U tom smislu, novа erа je zаistа pred nama: novi stil, novi stаv i nove ideje. Uspjesi prethodnog kаbinetа će služiti novoj Vladi da teži još većim rezultatima.

Suština nаše, prošle, sаdаšnje i buduće politike se može sumirati u tri riječi: rаzvoj, integrаcijа i trаnspаrentnosti. Rаst će proizаći iz naših niskih poreza i pаmetno vođene investicione politike. Administrаcijа će oprezno i  mudro trošiti državni novаc. Budućnost obiluje mogućnostimа nikad bliže integrаcije sа evroаtlаntskom zаjednicom: Crnа Gorа je člаnicа NATO – Akcionog plаnа zа člаnstvo i nаjnoviji kаndidаt zа člаnstvo u EU.

Trаnspаrentnost i odgovornost se ne mogu smatrati pаsivnim konceptimа u demokrаtiji. Crnogorci morаju znati da vlаdа zаslužuje njihovo poverenje i dа mi isključivo djelujemo u njihovom interesu. Populacijski mala Crnа Gorа ne smije, ne može i neće imati vladu koja djeluje izolovano od sopstvenog društva.

U cilju većeg uključivanja jаvnosti u demokrаtski proces, mojа vlаdа je pokrenulа sesije “Dane konsultаcija”, na kojima smo sa svim zainteresovanim stranama rаzgovаrаli o svim političkim pitаnjima. U dijalogu su učestvovali: NVO sektor, sindikаti, poslodаvci, vjerske orgаnizаcije, univerziteti, akademci, predstavnici manjina, boraca i medija. Nаdаm se dа rezultati ovih sаstаnаkа imaju pravi odjeki širom zemlje, od Pljevаljа do Ulcinjа, od Herceg Novog do Rožаjа.

Želim dа Crnа Gorа bude inovаtivnа zemljа čijim vještinama će zaviditi druge zemаlje. Nova vlаdа može dа pomogne u ostvаrivаnju ovog ciljа kroz reformu obrаzovnog sistemа; pored togа, novoformirano Ministаrstvа zа nаuku će pomoći Crnoj Gori u jačanju istraživačkih i razvojnih kapaciteta. Kad ovo kažem, mislim da je, možda, nаjvаžniji korаk koji možemo napraviti da obezbijedimo ljudima sredstvo koje im je neophodno zа njihov lični nаpredаk: Internet.

Univerzаlni pristup Internetu je preduslov zа konkurentnost. U ovom trenutku, mаnje od polovine Crnogorаcа imа pristup Internetu. Želim i nastojaću dа se ovaj procenаt ubrzano povećа i cijela zemlja bude pokrivena. Internet je nаjisplаtljiviji nаčin da grаđаni budu na izvoru informacija, da učestvuju u političkom procesu i pozovu svoje političаre nа odgovornost. To će omogućiti ljudimа dа prevaziđu birokratiju i smanjiti udaljenost između grаđаnа i donosilаcа odlukа. Moj kаbinet će se u velikoj mjeri oslаnjаti na mogućnosti koje pruža Internet.

Jednom je jedan veliki držаvnik u svom inauguralnom govoru, svom narodu ponudio krv, muku, suze i znoj. Od tada se svijet dosta promijenio: sada se od nas zahtijeva samo trud i znoj. To je žrtvа na koju smo spremni.

100 days to a New Era in Montenegro

For reasons probably known by my distinguished readers, I haven’t had sufficient time to post any new material to my blog. Mostly because of my hobby, I used to write about various economic and political ideas. As a public servant, challenges I face today have eclipsed my extra-curricular activities as analyst and theorist.

A new administration has been established in Montenegro, which was at once a time of great achievement and great ordeal for our country: We were admitted into the anteroom of the European Union when our own homes were threatened by the worst floods in history. At that time, people of Montenegro have shown great strength, determination and unity to face that catastrophe. My government shall endeavor virtues which have been so plainly demonstrated by our people.

What changes can we expect?

The concept of “change” in politics is very vague. With lack of meaningful context, “change” is an empty buzzword. It might capture people’s imagination, but it can hardly be translated into policy. I will not try to win sympathy by talking through my hat. Therefore, I would like to clarify some things right at the outset:

It was a great honor and a professional challenge to serve as former Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic’s deputy prime minister and finance minister. The most valuable lesson I learned during these past years, was how to set objectives and to accomplish them through politics. My government will continue to work toward the goal that my predecessor set: To achieve a peaceful and prosperous future for Montenegro in the EU.

I won’t say anything new by saying that on the other hand, a government’s character is determined by the person at the helm. In this sense, a new era is indeed upon us: A new style, a new attitude and new ideas. The former cabinet’s successes will serve as a benchmark for new Government to pursue even better results.

The core of our past, current and future policy, can be summed up in three words: growth, integration and transparency. Growth will arise from our low taxes and smart investment policies. The administration will spend public money warily and wisely. The future abounds with opportunities for ever-closer integration with the Euro-Atlantic community:  Montenegro is a member of NATO’s Membership Action Plan and the newest candidate for EU membership.

We cannot consider transparency and accountability as passive concepts in democracy. Montenegrins must be aware of the fact that their government is worthy of their trust, and that we are acting solely on their interests. Montenegro being small in population, it shouldn’t, couldn’t and it won’t have a government that operates in isolation from its own society.

In order to engage the public more closely into the democratic process, my government has launched the “Consultation Days” sessions, where we discuss all kinds of policy issues with stakeholders. NGOs, trade unions, employers, religious organizations, academics, and representatives of minorities, war veterans and media took part  in these Consultations. It is my hope that the benefits of these meetings have resonated across the country, from Pljevlja to Ulcinj, from Herceg Novi to Rozaje.

I want Montenegro to be an innovative country whose skills will make other countries more envious. My government can help achieve this goal through reforming the education system; in addition, the brand-new Ministry of Science will help Montenegro strengthen its R&D capacities. When I say this I mean, that perhaps the single most important step we can take is to provide people with the tool they need for their own prosperity: the Internet.
Universal Internet access is a precondition of competitiveness. At present, fewer than half of Montenegrins have access to the Internet. I want and I will endeavor in increasing this proportion rapidly to total nationwide coverage. The Internet is the most effective way for citizens to keep themselves informed, participate in the political process, and to keep their politicians accountable. It will allow people to vault over the trenches of bureaucracy and it will reduce the distance between citizens and decision makers. My cabinet will rely heavily on the opportunities the Internet provides.

A great statesman once offered his people blood, toil, tears and sweat in his inaugural address. The world has changed a lot since then: It now only demands our toil and sweat. This is a sacrifice we are willing to make.

EKSPOZE MANDATARA ZA SASTAV VLADE CRNE GORE DR IGORA LUKŠIĆA NA SJEDNICI SKUPŠTINE

Poštovani predsjedniče države,
Poštovani predsjedniče Skupštine,
Uvaženo Predsjedništvo,
Uvaženi poslanici,

 

Dozvolite mi da, na samom početku, kažem da mi čini izuzetnu čast da Skupštini Crne Gore, u funkciji mandatara, predstavim predlog programa i sastav 39. crnogorske Vlade. I nova Vlada, kao i prethodna, biće posvećena kontinuitetu ostvarivanja nacionalnih interesa, kao i stvaranju uslova za ekonomski prosperitet naše države. Iskoristiću priliku, prije nego što počnem da govorim o novoj Vladi, da ukažem na dostignuća prethodne. Danas smo suočeni sa drugačijom Crnom Gorom, Crnom Gorom koja je, u proteklih gotovo dvije godine, sadržajnim i intenzivnim aktivnostima na unutrašnjem i međunarodnom planu snažno zakoračila u tokove savremenog i razvijenog svijeta, dijeleći izazove koji stoje i pred najbogatijim zemljama svijeta.

Keynote Speech Of Montenegrin Prime Minister-Designate Igor Luksic To Parliament

Mr. President of the State,
Mr. President of the Parliament,
Distinguished Chair,
Honorable Members of Parliament

First, allow me to say that I am greatly honored, in my capacity as prime minister-designate, to present to Parliament the proposed program and composition of the 39^th Government of Montenegro. The new Government, like the previous one, is determined to continue defending national interests and creating conditions for national economic prosperity. I will use this opportunity to draw your attention to the achievements of the previous Government before I begin talking about the new one.

Recession’s over – Now what?

It’s official: Montenegro has defeated the recession. Third-quarter 2010 data shows that GDP has stopped contracting. We therefore have good reason for optimism, yet much work lies ahead. So let’s spend a minute on what Montenegro has been through last two years, and another on what comes next.

The winter of their discontent

The story of Montenegro’s football team is gripping even for those of us who are not particularly big fans of the sport. In just its second international competition, Montenegro – the newest member of FIFA/UEFA – has soared into the Top 30 teams worldwide and left its competitors dazed.

This is not good news for everyone. At least England manager Fabio Capello did not seem happy with his team’s the 0:0 tie with Montenegro last month. They have to wait until spring to try to strike back. For now, England and Montenegro are both going into the Euro 2012 football qualifiers unbeaten.

Montenegro won’t play again till June next year, and we have to wait almost a year to host the English here in Podgorica. But one thing is for sure: Montenegro rules the roost in qualifying Group G until next spring.

Miraculous accomplishment! Even I might join the ranks of the fans of the world’s most popular sport.

PS: Football fans, start memorizing some names. You’ll be hearing them a lot in Poland & Ukraine in 2012!

Where are we on the road to the European Union?

Montenegro is on the brink of European integration. For people across the Balkans, EU membership is a symbol of the peoples’ hopes of enjoying the same democratic and economic benefits that our neighbors do. But why do different Balkan nations have such different levels of progress toward this common goal? One former Yugoslav country is already a member, Macedonia and Croatia are formal candidates, and Montenegro and Serbia have applied for membership. Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo remain far behind.

What makes one country a candidate and the other a slow starter?

In my view, the European Union considers just three factors when deciding on a country’s readiness for membership. Of course, this may be misleading, since each factor is a composite of dozens if not hundreds of separate considerations.

First and foremost, Brussels wants you to respect its values. Human rights, democracy and fundamental liberties, as laid out in the Copenhagen criteria, are not matters for debate. Humanistic considerations are accompanied by economic ones (e.g. a functioning market economy), as well as “state-of-the-art” standards such as environmental protection. These requirements do not just represent moral imperatives; they are tokens of political stability – something that European states hold in very high regard.

Second, a country’s foreign policy must be consistent with the fundamentals of European foreign policy, or more precisely, foreign policies – no matter how inconsistent they might be with each other. Brussels needs to know that your government will not cut deals with the bad guys.

The third part of this political trinity is economic policy, the core of the entire integration process. This has two aspects: The first is openness, with a particular emphasis on openness to innovation. The other aspect is being reasonable and disciplined in the long run. It’s the trustworthiness issue again – they don’t want any house in the European neighborhood to blow up.

So where does Montenegro stand with respect to these three coordinates? What remains to be done?

One of the core elements of human rights is tolerance for others (people of different ethnic origin, mother tongue, religion etc.). A few days ago the US Congressman William Delahunt, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe, described Montenegrin policy towards people with different backgrounds as “a marvel to emulate, obviously not just in this region, but elsewhere in Europe and elsewhere in the globe”. The Freedom House NGO says democratic development in Croatia and Montenegro is well ahead of the regional curve, even if significant challenges remain. In Montenegro, top concern is clearly organized crime and corruption. The causes of this are mainly structural: We are a small country and criminals established their relationships well before the borders were drawn in their current forms. Overcoming corruption requires laws and institutions that are currently being built up, brick by brick. But better legislation cannot be effective without stronger public awareness. Once we have achieved stronger laws and a public that is less tolerant of corruption, then it is only a matter of time. Habits don’t change overnight.

Let’s go on. The EU cannot take issue with Montenegro’s political stability or foreign policy, which is not the case with some of its own members. According to Foreign Policy, a leading US journal, some EU members Bulgaria and Romania are in greater danger of becoming “failed states” than Montenegro and other aspiring candidates. What’s more, Montenegro has recognized Kosovo, putting it in greater harmony with EU foreign policy than the member states that have not recognized Europe’s newest nation.

Many people in Brussels view the Balkans as the continent’s powder keg because of the region’s shaky economies. But, this time, the focal point of their concern is not a former Yugoslav republic, it is longtime member state Greece. The smoke is not coming from Montenegro’s house — but even so, we need to get our fire extinguishers ready. Fiscal discipline is vital, as are long-term structural reforms that will render public finances sustainable. If we achieve fiscal stability, which we clearly will, the remaining factors – openness and innovation – will pose no obstacle to Montenegro’s accession. Why? Because they have already ceased to be obstacles.

So what is missing? What still prevents us from becoming a full-fledged EU member? Let’s be honest. An average 30 year old citizen of Hamburg (biggest city of the former West Germany) experienced the following enlargements in his lifetime: Greece ’81, Spain and Portugal ’86, East Germany ’90, Austria, Finland, Sweden ’95, and 12 more countries in the 2000s. That is a lot of change in one’s life, and change can easily be viewed as threat — especially when the poorer EU countries, plus some irresponsible rich ones, are putting a serious strain on wealthier, responsible countries’ finances. Popular economics convince our 30-year-old German that if more people are slicing into the pie, he himself is going to get less. So why should he want to hurry to accept new states? Moreover, why should he do it anyway? This phenomenon is called “enlargement fatigue”.

What popular economics misses is that the pie is actually getting bigger with every enlargement, as does Europe’s potential for growth. Since European citizens’ wealth is increasing, this argument is not just correct, it’s convincing too. Clearly, enlargement became less attractive when the economic crisis struck and took a bite out of Europeans’ personal incomes. The end of the global downturn will hopefully end these setbacks, as well as certain member states’ spendthrift ways.

So what is still missing for Montenegro to gain candidate status? From our part, nothing is missing in general, but a lot of things are missing in particular. A structural overhaul is underway, but social systems remain delicate and their behavior still cannot be fully predicted. If you want to affect that behavior in some way, you set forth small and controlled impulses  — in our case, reforms. You then watch these impulses accumulate and finally take on an inertia of their own. Time is surely a key factor. We also need constant supervision and corrections as change gathers steam. That is the playbook for the rest of the race, as the home stretch approaches.