At the end of the year

The 21st century market knows no borders, and thus, Montenegro cannot stay on the fringes, without investing efforts in finding the most efficient response to changes that are happening on the global economic scene. It is enough of a challenge to do well in good circumstances, let alone bad ones. In the past year we were faced with the challenge of surviving in circumstances and an environment which were not stable or promising and which, unfortunately, still exist together with weaknesses and uncertainties. While the main powers in the European Union are deliberating on their, not only monetary, but every other future, other member states are forced to change governments and adopt the most unpopular measures in order to try to avoid financial and social collapse.

Previous efforts in this area have brought tangible results. Montenegro succeded not only in achieving economic stability, but even managed to improve its credit rating and remain within the zone of the Maastricht criteria, unlike most of the EU member states. The achieved stability gives us the right to claim that we have developed significant capacities that guarantee that we will overcome the challenges of the crisis successfully, and further strengthen those capacities. Overcoming the crisis in this way involves the contribution of all of us, respecting each other as partners who share a common goal.

We are aware of the fact that credibility takes a long time to develop, and that it can be lost very fast; for that reason, I believe that it is better to be cautious and conservative in giving promises, but also responsible and accurate in fulfilling them. This, of course, does not mean that there is a lack of enthusiasm and ambition, but rather that we wish to prove ourselves as a reliable partner internationally, which can be trusted with good reason.

We have demonstrated that we are learning fast, that we can quickly apply what we have learned, and not only that – Montenegro serves as an example from which a lot can be learned.

We were committed to the attainment of our national interests and creation of prerequisites for the economic prosperity of our country. On 9 December, with the decision of the European Council to open negotiations with the EU in June 2012, Montenegro took a large step forward in the integration process. This is a decision of historic importance for Montenegrin society and a confirmation of the efforts that the Government has invested, through a comprehensive, participatory approach, in order to meet the demanding requirements set by the European Commission. We continue the activities to efficiently implement the projected reforms, fully aware that even the best legislation and strategies cannot guarantee success, and now we have to define the negotiating structures and undertake other steps regarding careful preparations for the initiation of the negotiation process. This is the basis of our democratic and sustainable economic development, our internal needs, and not an instruction imposed externally.

The discussion regarding the 2012 Budget of the State of Montenegro is taking place at a time of numerous, complex challenges. Europe is changing right before our eyes, and the direction of the change is far from certain. Every day we witness changes, mostly negative ones regarding reputation, ranking and assessments of the situation in some of the until-recently very rich and stable economies. The biggest states in Europe, unfortunately, are faced with huge debt, while, to our satisfaction, data shows that we have mostly managed, so far, to avoid the negative consequences of the crisis and to ensure the stability of the Montenegrin economy. The challenge that remains is to improve the economic and social situation. The main characteristic of the macro-economic environment this year is the increase in economic activity, but also a high level of caution, due to a possible new recession in the Euro zone. It will take years for Europe to overcome the crisis, and this process cannot be realized through attractive measures, involving positive short-term effects, but negative long-term ones. This process requires solutions that are neither simple, nor can be adopted hastily. For that reason, the Government aims to have Montenegro among the most developed countries that will accept the market game, to strike a balance by responding to the crisis in a way that will not endanger long-term fiscal and financial stability, and to create an institutional framework and competitive economic system that will attract sound investment and increase employment. This mission requires systemic changes, sacrifice and understanding by all, without exception, and in the Government we are doing all that we can and all that is necessary to achieve that goal and improve the quality of life of all citizens in Montenegro.

The financial crisis is not over. In this respect, Europe is still suffering and will continue to suffer consequences. We planned the 2012 Budget precisely to protect ourselves, as far as possible, from external effects, while assisting the citizens at the same time, to manage all the impacts of the crisis until it ends. Look at the current situation in Europe: Great Britain is laying off half a million employees in the public sector. France made the decision to increase its revenues by EUR 18.6 billion through an increase in taxes and a reduction in expenditure, in order to finance its deficit. We have seen similar examples in this region, as well: it is very likely that in Bulgaria the trade unions will go on strike, while Romania is freezing wages and pension benefits; not to mention the Greek example.

Finally, it is important to know that this is only the beginning of the final stage on our road to Europe. This road is not easy, nor fast. The most difficult and the most complex work is yet to come.

The greatest burden of work and responsibility lies still with the Government. However, neither the Government, nor any other institution or individual can do the work on behalf of society overall. Thus, it is only if the participation and active approach of all factors in the society are ensured, if everyone does his/her part in the work that we can count on success.

 Igor Lukšić, PhD

Prime Minister of Montenegro

New political platform and call for debate

In today’s world, when political legitimacy is in transition, when the borderline between the ideological foundations of the left and the right in Europe is becoming increasingly thinner and when parties seek to redefine the position of the centre, we need to reinvent our political platform in order to retain legitimacy in times of postmodern global challenges. There are no static systems and unequivocal answers. The global social system is in transition, which is either influenced by economic misgivings or the expression of the need for further democratisation of societies. It is only through constant innovation of our political platform, while preserving our core principles, that we can build an efficient and effective executive branch, capable of facing all aspects of globalisation.

 

Party of independence, Montenegrin party

DPS is a state-building party. This is our greatest responsibility, as it brings stability to our system and competitiveness to our society. This responsibility should give birth to modern politics and a modern image, with elements of traditional national identity. We have written history, together with our coalition partners – and we, therefore, have historic responsibility. This is why DPS is a party of independence. The traditional identity of the Montenegrin society can be based on a definition of “the Montenegrin minimum” – a set of principles that embrace the international recognition of our political community, our centuries-old statehood and independence, our symbols, language and history. Montenegro is a society united in diversity of traditions, cultural identities and religious beliefs, where everyone respects each other and nobody is excluded from the community. We define DPS as a strong and clear Montenegrin party – our identity is inclusive, rather than exclusive. That is why DPS has a vision of the Montenegrin society as a highly harmonious community of Montenegrins, Serbs, Bosniaks-Muslims, Croatians, Albanians, Roma and others. Being part of the modern-day Montenegro means experiencing the diversity and tolerance of all ethnic groups, religious, linguistic and cultural communities. European integration and NATO accession provide the best long-term safeguard for Montenegro’s statehood and independence, as well as a framework for preserving Montenegro’s cultural and spiritual identity.

 

21^st century, the age of democracy in Montenegro

DPS should be the driving force behind a change in the way policy is made in Montenegro. This means that citizens should be more involved in politics, and not only those who abstain from voting, but also those who feel that going to the polls is their only responsibility. Every person has their own views – and we should not be afraid of listening to what they have to say! DPS and our organisations should launch a general debate on Montenegro’s future and a dialogue on the future development of local communities. We are a party that is responsible for the development of democracy in our society. Now is the time to live our lives. We should not fear what the future holds for us, we should create our own future.

 

Political credibility for the new age

DPS will always remain the Democratic Party of Socialists, but we know that, in the dawn of the 21^st century, the meaning of the word ‘democratic’ has become broader than ever before, while the attribute ‘socialist’ must be redefined in line with the ongoing changes at the global and local level. In the new age, we need to clarify our ideological principles. Our ‘Montenegrin way’ will leave an imprint on our journey to a stronger society, offering equal opportunity for women and all minority groups and rejecting any form of discrimination. Environmental awareness is vital for preserving our country’s unparalleled beauty and natural assets. Our vision is an energetic, competitive economy based on sustainable development, responsible use of national resources, modern infrastructures and the talents, intelligence and knowhow of our people who are building this society as individuals, in which the state serves its citizens, instead of offering answers to all their questions. Our vision needs to be materialised in a policy that responds to the extremely challenging second decade of this century.

 

New way of communication and image enhancement

In an attempt to address the most serious political issues, in Montenegro, just like elsewhere in the world, a special way of communication is being created among politicians. This type of communication is only suitable for debates on national, economic and legal affairs. It is, however, completely inadequate for conversation on key political issues with the voters – simply because they do not understand this kind of language. This is the reason why people are losing faith in politicians all over Europe – they feel that politicians no longer care about them. This often gives rise to social discontent. DPS needs to improve its communication with the voters. We need to put our hearts and souls into our conversation with people and leave the bureaucratic language behind. This is a way to introduce a fundamental change in our thinking patterns and politics. DPS as the strongest and most popular party in Montenegro needs to rely much more on the Internet and social networks in its internal and external communication.

 

Focusing on young people

DPS has always steered the government’s policy towards young people, because they are progressive and future-oriented. DPS should retain its appeal for young people, boost its image, refresh its messages and focus on creating new opportunities for the youth (including better education and faster creation of new jobs). Young DPS members should be prepared to assume increasingly responsible roles. The dynamics of the time we live in demands this. Clear political messages and visual communication are critical for our success, particularly in communication with young people, because retaining legitimacy in that part of the population is the most difficult task.

Party that stands for middle class and entrepreneurship

The economic policy goal of DPS is to break down business barriers and encourage economic growth and entrepreneurship in Montenegro, as we seek to empower the middle class, or rather create a new one capable of benefiting from the common European market. We believe that the state needs to avoid any market interference, while focusing on fiscal stability and provision of first-rate public services through continued structural reform and investment in infrastructure. Many of our assets can only be valorised in market economy. Market economy and a service-oriented state will bring about new jobs, equal opportunity and social inclusion. Our economic system needs to be as diversified as possible, but also flexible. The socialist system of non-commercial employment has failed and the focus of the DPS policy is on empowering small and medium-sized enterprises and family business. Montenegro’s attractiveness as an investment destination will create more and more interest from reputable investors.

Reaching out to disheartened voters!

Many Montenegrin citizens never vote. There are 80,000 passive voters in Montenegro. Every passive voter is a huge loss for democracy. DPS needs to work hard to convince the voters who believe that their voice is not heard that they are wrong. Being Montenegro’s biggest political party, we need to be their first and real choice.

 

DPS opens up to new form of conversation with people

DPS needs to position itself as the driving force behind Montenegro’s democratic transition at the turn of the century. DPS needs to use its assets to empower the broader community, not only the parliament or municipalities. One of the ways to achieve this is to launch charity initiatives, or even aspire to set up a foundation for the promotion of some important social issues. Global challenges are manifested locally.

 

New focus on internal debate and organisation

Party members are much more than mere voting machines. Internal debates are important, as they enable our members to see both our strengths and weaknesses. One of our new organisational efforts could take the form of a political academy (where our members could improve, for example, their debating skills or experience the way politics works abroad), we could develop partnership programmes with kindred parties, or set up an internship program in Western Europe. Only in this way can we implement our future policies.

Nova politička platforma i poziv na debatu

U današnjem svijetu tranzicije političkog legitimiteta, kada u Evropi postaju sve tanje granice između ideoloških pretpostavki ljevice i desnice, kada političke partije nastoje da redefinišu poziciju centra, potrebno je iznova inovirati političku platformu kako bi sačuvali legitimitet u vremenu postmodernih globalnih izazova. Nema statičkih sistema, i jednoznačnih odgovora. Globalni društveni sistem je u tranziciji, bilo pod uticajem ekonomskih nedaća ili ispoljavanjem potrebe za daljom demokratizacijom društva. Jedino stalno inoviranje naše političke platforme uz čuvanje temeljnih principa može obezbijediti efikasnu i efektivnu izvršnu vlast, kadru da se suoči sa svim aspektima globalizacije.

Partija nezavisnosti, crnogorska Partija

DPS je državotvorna partija. Ta odgovornost je najveća, jer iz nje proizlazi stabilnost sistema i konkurentnost društva. Ona treba da zastupa modernu politiku i moderan imidž, ali sa tradicionalnim nacionalnim identitetom. Mi smo, u saradnji sa koalicionim partnerima, pisali istoriju – i naša odgovornost je zato istorijska. Zato je DPS partija nezavisnosti. Tradicionalni identitet crnogorskog društva može biti zasnovan na određenju “crnogorskog minimuma” – kao skupa načela koji obuhvataju priznanje naše političke zajednice, naše viševjekovne državnosti i nezavisnosti, naših simbola, jezika i istorije. Crnogorsko društvo je ujedinjeno u različitosti mnogih običaja, kulturne pripadnosti i vjerskih uvjerenja, gdje svi poštuju svakog, i ne isključuju nikog iz zajednice. DPS se definiše kao čvrsta i jasna crnogorska partija – naš identitet je inkluzivan, a ne ekskluzivan. Zato DPS promoviše crnogorsko društvo kao visoko kvalitetan sklad Crnogoraca, Srba, Bošnjaka-Muslimana, Hrvata, Albanaca, Roma i drugih. Biti dio savremenog crnogorskog društva znači živjeti u bogatstvu i toleranciji svih etničkih grupa, vjerskih, jezičkih i kulturnih zajednica. Evropske integracije i učlanjenje u NATO su najbolji okvir dugoročnog obezbjeđenja crnogorske državnosti i nezavisnosti, kao i okvir za očuvanje crnogorskog kulturnog i duhovnog identiteta.

21. vijek demokratije u Crnoj Gori

DPS treba da predvodi promjene načina vođenja politike u Crnoj Gori. To znači da građani treba da se posvete politici, ne samo oni koji ne glasaju, nego i oni koji misle da je to njihov jedini zadatak. Svi ljudi imaju svoje stavove – ne treba se plašiti da ih čujemo! DPS i naše organizacije treba da predvode globalnu debatu o budućnosti Crne Gore kao i diskusije o budućnosti i razvoju lokalnih zajednica. Mi smo stranka koja nosi odgovornost za razvoj demokratije u našem društvu. Sada je vrijeme da se živi. Ne treba da se plašimo budućnosti, mi je stvaramo.

Politički kredibilitet  za novo doba

DPS će uvijek ostati Demokratska partije socijalista, ali znamo da se uz osvit 21. vijeka značenje riječi “demokratska”  širi više nego ikada, dok odrednica “socijalisti” mora biti redefinisana u skladu sa promjenama na globalnom i lokalnom nivou. Moramo da pojasnimo ideološke principe u novom vremenu. Naš “Crnogorski put” će značiti naš put do jačeg društva koje obezbjeđuje jednake mogućnosti i za žene i sve manjinske grupe i odbacuje diskriminaciju. Ekološka svijest je važna za očuvanje neopisive ljepote i prirodnih vrijednosti naše zemlje. Naša vizija je energična, konkurentna ekonomija koja se zasniva na održivom razvoju, odgovornom korišćenju nacionalnih resursa, modernoj infrastrukturi i talentima, inteligenciji i znanju naših ljudi koji grade društvo kao pojedinci, u kojoj je država servis građana, a ne odgovor na sva pitanja. Naša vizija treba da se materijalizuje u politici koja daje odgovore na vrlo izazovnu drugu deceniju ovog vijeka. 

Novi način komunikacije i unaprijeđen imidž

Radi rješavanja najdubljih političkih problema i u Crnoj Gori, kao i svuda širom kontinenta stvara se poseban način komunikacije među političarima. Ova vrsta komuniakcije je jedino adekvatna prilikom razgovora o državnim, ekonomskim i pravnim poslovima. Ali neadekvatna je za diskusiju o glavnim političkim pitanjima sa biračima – jer oni jednostavno ne razumiju taj jezik. To je razlog zašto političari gube povjerenje ljudi u cijeloj Evropi – oni misle da političari više ne brinu o njima. To često bude i razlog socijalnog nezadovoljstva. DPS treba da unaprijedi komunikaciju sa biračima. Mi treba da razgovaramo srcem i dušom sa ljudima i ostavimo birokratski jezik iza sebe. Na taj način bi se pokazale osnovne promjene u načinu razmišljanja i politici. DPS kao najjača i najpopularnija partija u Crnoj Gori mora da se oslanja mnogo više na internet i društvene mreže u internoj i eksternoj komunikaciji.

Mladi u fokusu

DPS je uvijek favorizovao vladinu politiku u smjeru mladih, jer su progresivni i orijentisani ka budućnosti. DPS treba da ostane atraktivan za mlade ljude, ojača imidž, osvježi svoje poruke i fokusira se na stvaranje novih mogućnosti za mlade (i bolje mogućnosti za obrazovanje i brže otvaranje novih radnih mjesta). Mlađi članovi u DPS-u treba da budu spremni na preuzimanje sve odgovornijih poslova. Dinamika vremena u kojem živimo to zahtijeva. Jasne političke poruke i vizuelna komunikacija su od ključnog značaja za uspjeh, posebno u komunikaciji sa mladima jer je najteže legitimitet sačuvati u tom dijelu populacije.

Stranka za jačanje srednje klase i preduzetništva

DPS-ova ekonomska politika ima za cilj da smanji biznis barijere, podstiče ekonomski razvoj, kao i atraktivnost preduzetništva u Crnoj Gori, jer želimo da ojačamo i stvorimo novu srednju klasu, koja može da profitira od zajedničkog tržišta Evropske unije. Po našem mišljenju, država mora izbjegavati miješanje na tržište, i fokusirati se na obezbjeđivanje finasijske stabilnosti i pružanje najvišeg kvaliteta javnih usluga daljim sprovođenjem strukturnih reformi i ulaganjem u infrastrukturu. Brojne resurse je moguće valorizovati samo u sistemu tržišne ekonomije. Tržišna ekonomija i usluge države će dovesti do otvaranja novih radnih mjesta, jednakih mogućnosti i socijalne inkluzije. Ekonomski sistem treba da bude što diversifikovaniji, ali i fleksibilan. Socijalistički poredak neekonomskog zapošljavanja je krahirao, i fokus politike DPS-a je na jačanju malih i srednjih preduzeća i porodičnog biznisa. Atraktivnost Crne Gore kao investicione destinacije uticaće na sve veća interesovanja renomiranih investitora. 

Treba se obratiti obeshrabrenim biračima!

Dosta građana Crne Gore ne glasa na izborima. Crna Gora ima 80.000 pasivnih birača. Svaki pasivni birač predstavlja veliki gubitak za demokratiju. DPS treba da nastoji da je jedan od osnovnih zadataka da uvjeri birače da griješe oni koji misle da se njihov glas ne čuje. I kao najveća stranka u Crnoj Gori, treba da budemo njihov prvi i pravi izbor.

Otvoreni DPS se uključuje u novu vrstu razgovora sa ljudima

DPS-a treba da pokaže da je pokretač transformacije demokratije u Crnoj Gori od 20. do 21. vijeka. DPS treba da iskoristi svoj potencijal da ojača zajednicu u širem kontekstu a ne samo u parlamentu ili u opštinama. Jedan od vidova jeste i pokretanje dobrotvornih aktivnosti, čak i teži stvaranju Fondacije za promovisanje određenih važnih društvenih pitanja. Globalni izazovi imaju svoje lokalne manifestacije.

Novi naglasak na unutrašnju diskusiju i organizaciju

Članovi partije nisu samo glasačke mašine. Interne diskusije su važne da članovi vide naše vrline i naše slabosti. Jedan od novih organizacionih aktivnosti može da bude i u formi političke akademije (gdje članovi mogu da usavršavaju svoje vještine, na primjer, rasprave, ili vide kakva je politika u inostranstvu), izgradnju programa partnerstva sa srodnim zapadnim partijama, uspostavljanje Internship programa u Zapadnoj Evropi. Jedino tako možemo implementirati buduću politiku.

Common economic governance of the European Union – truth or reality?

The euro zone crisis is everywhere. Everybody is talking about it. Yet there is no clearsolution: It is a many-sided problem that includes financial, economic, and political aspects. The idea of pumping more money into a bailout fund for the “troublemakers” seems unrealistic. But this raises a number of questions: Will the euro survive? Should the euro zone break up in two? Should problematic countries leave temporarily and return once they are ready?

 The story begins in Greece, which is where some people think it ends as well. I think this view is too simplistic: As I have mentioned in previous blog entries on the euro and the fiscal crisis, I believe the true long-term response is to keep the euro rather than leave it. As I said in a recent interview, Greece should fight to stay in the Eurozone even if it defaults on it debt. Greece would do better to struggle through a default (or whatever it will be called) rather than go back to the drachma. Montenegro has been using the euro ever since the currency was introduced in 2002, albeit without a formal agreement with European Central Bank. (Before the euro, Montenegro used the Deutsche mark as its legal tender). Although our government has had to give up most of its monetary policy instruments, I reckon it is always better to keep yourself linked to a strong currency.

 Such an approach forces a country to confront all problems including the shadow economy, privatization-related issues and structural changes. My position is that you need an anchor for your economic policies, and therefore pay closer attention to how you stimulate entrepreneurship, which is the motor of economic dynamism and competition. One has to take greater care in cutting red tape and tackling sources of corruption while investing more in the rule of law.

 Imagine what would happen if one of the United States were to go bankrupt. Would the USA abandon the dollar? I doubt it. Imagine if we were in Germany 15 years ago and one of Germany’s states went bankrupt. Would Germany have given up the Deutsche mark? Again, I do not think so. So if some of the countries in the euro zone go bankrupt, why should the euro disappear? It is true that the strength of the euro currency has highlighted structural discrepancies among the members of the club – discrepancies that were masked prior to the crisis. But still, the disadvantages of breaking up the euro zone would be enormous compared to the advantages that the euro brings. A breakup would bring much bigger economic costs. So if Greece defaults, but continues to use the euro, it should be possible for the country to rejoin the single currency as a full member once it revamps its economy.

 I believe EU leaders will not let the sovereign-debt crisis damage the euro, but they need to do more. It is difficult to resist thinking about the contents of the recently floated proposals to establish common economic governance. Can they solve the problem by issuing a new type of Eurobond? They might. Is it harmful to have friction within the ECB? Of course it is. It is quite reasonable to expect that when talking about economic governance there is more to be done in relation to the fiscal policies. Will there be a single finance ministry, or a uniform tax system? Time will tell. However, I am not sure it is realistic, or even necessary for this to be installed to the extent that some people argue.

 At present, some argue that it might be useful to harmonize the VAT system or excise policy throughout the EU. I would agree. Still, I do not think that the same should be done with respect to personal and corporate income taxes, or real-estate taxes. While the former could bolster the single market, the latter may harm structural competitiveness.

 Rather than a finance ministry, I would argue for a Treasury department (or similar office) that would work alongside Ecofin, the council of finance and economy ministers from EU member states. This department would be in charge of the Eurobond issues. The office would assess the financing needs of the euro zone members as a whole and auction bonds as a single entity, replacing the existing system in which bonds are issued by individual member states. Strong economies such as Germany would lend their economic productivity and reputation to the project. Investors would always have a healthy appetite for these securities. At the outset, the interest rates might be somewhat higher than the rates paid on the Bund, which would clearly mean higher costs for taxpayers in Germany and other solid economies. I believe that one is easier to deal with than the one related to the new funds and budget allocation, which is politically unacceptable. Later on, as the EU economy recovers, the interest rates would converge to the current Bund levels, as there must be triggers for the non-performers to use the money.

 The EC Treasury could impose conditions on the countries that do not follow policy prescriptions checked by the EC or the IMF before money gets disbursed in order to prevent the guarantees to be called some day.

 Such a scheme could appease the markets and provide a solid maneuvering space for countries that may default, without imposing significant new costs on the strong economies.

Jedinstveno upravljanje ekonomijom u Evropskoj uniji – istina ili realnost?

Kriza euro zone je svuda oko nas. O tome svi govore. Međutim, nema jasnog rješenja, jer postoje brojni aspekti ovog problema, a među njima i finansijski, ekonomski, pa i politički. Čini se nerealnim prikupljati dodatna sredstva u fond kojim će se plaćati troškovi spašavanja “problematičnih”, što pokreće niz pitanja. Da li će euro preživjeti, treba li euro zonu podijeliti na dva dijela? Da li bi problematične zemlje trebalo privremeno da je napuste, pa da se vrate kad za to budu spremne?

Priča počinje u Grčkoj, a neki smatraju da se tu i završava. Ja se ne bih složio, jer bi to bio previše pojednostavljen pogled na stvari. Već sam blogovao neke stavove o euru i fiskalnoj krizi. I dalje čvrsto vjerujem da je pravi, dugoročni odgovor da se euro zadrži, a ne da se odbaci. Kao što sam rekao u nedavnom intervjuu, Grčka treba da se bori da ostane u euro regiji, čak i ako ne uspije da pokrije svoje obaveze. Mislim da je bolje proći i kroz bankrot ili kako god da to nazovemo, nego da se vrate na drahmu. Iako Crna Gora (koja je prešla na euro kada je ova valuta uvedena, 2002. godine, pri čemu je prethodno koristila njemačku marku) koristi valutu bez formalnog dogovora za Evropskom centralnom bankom, i time se odrekla većeg dijela instrumenata monetarne politike, smatram da je to bolja opcija  – opcija vezivanja za jaku valutu.  

Takav pristup prisiljava zemlju da se suoči sa svim problemima, uključujući i sivu ekonomiju, pitanja privatizacije ili strukturne promjene. Moj stav je da morate imati nešto što će predstavljati sidro ekonomske politike, pa stoga više pažnje treba posvetiti pitanju kako podstaći preduzetništvo, jer je to ključna politika za postizanje veće dinamike i konkurencije. Potrebno je raditi više na smanjivanju birokratskih procedura i pozabaviti se izvorima korupcije, investirajući, istovremeno, više u vladavinu prava.  

Zamislite da jedna od američkih država bankrotira. Da li bi se SAD odrekle dolara? Ne vjerujem. Zamislite da smo u Njemačkoj od prije 15 godina i da je jedna od država bankrotirala. Da li bi se Njemačka odrekla marke? Opet, ne vjerujem. Zato, ako neke države euro zone bankrotiraju, zašto bi euro nestao? Tačno je da tako jaka valuta iznosi na površinu strukturne razlike među članicama tog kluba, kao i da su te razlike bile prikrivene prije krize. Ali, ipak, negativne strane odluke da se raskine euro zona bi bile ogromne u odnosu na prednosti koje euro donosi. Ekonomski, to bi nametnulo mnogo veće troškove. Zato, čak i kad bi Grčka bankrotirala i nastavila da koristi euro, trebalo bi da bude moguće da se zemlja ponovo pridruži jedinstvenoj valuti, kao punopravna članica, nakon oporavka svoje privrede.   

Vjerujem da lideri Evropske unije neće dozvoliti da kriza javnog duga ugrozi euro, ali moraju učiniti više tim povodom. Teško je oduprijeti se razmišljanju o tome šta pojam objedinjenog ekonomskog upravljanja, koje je promovisano, podrazumijeva. Mogu li riješiti problem nekom novom vrstom euro-obveznica? Možda mogu. Je li štetno ako postoje neslaganja unutar Evropske centralne banke? Naravno da jeste. Sasvim je realno očekivati da je, ako govorimo o ekonomskom upravljanju, potrebno više raditi u oblasti fiskalne politike. Da li će postojati jedno ministarstvo finansija ili jedinstveni poreski sistem? Vrijeme će pokazati. Međutim, nisam siguran da je realno, ili čak potrebno, da se to učini u mjeri u kojoj neki ljudi predlažu.

U stvari, neki smatraju da bi bilo korisno harmonizovati sistem PDV-a ili akciznu politiku u čitavoj EU. Složio bih se sa time. Ali ipak, ne smatram isto to treba učiniti sa porezom na dohodak fizičkih lica, porezom na dobit preduzeća ili porezom na nepokretnosti. Dok bi harmonizacija PDV i akciznih sistema doprinijela razvoju jedinstvenog tržišta, ovo drugo bi moglo ugroziti strukturnu konkurentnost.  

Što se tiče Ministarstva finansija, ja bih prije zagovarao postojanje jednog vrste Trezora ili neke druge slične službe kao dijela Ecofin departmana Evropske komisije, koji bi bio nadležan za emisiju euro-obveznica. Kancelarija bi mogla prikupljati informacije o potrebama članica euro zone za finansiranjem i organizovati aukcije obveznica kao jedinstveni organ, umjesto postojanja pojedinačnih, na nacionalnom nivou. Snažne privrede, poput Njemačke, bi takvoj shemi pozajmile svoju ekonomsku produktivnost i ugled. Uvijek bi bilo interesovanja za takve hartije. U početku bi kamatne stope mogle biti nešto više nego one koje su plaćane za Bund, što bi jasno bio veći trošak za njemačke poreske obveznike i poreske obveznike drugih jakih ekonomija. Mislim da je to lakše, nego predlog koji podrazumijeva nove fondove i izdvajanja iz budžeta, što je politički neprihvatljivo. Kasnije, kako se privreda EU bude oporavljala, kamatne stope bi se približile postojećim nivoima za Bund, jer moraju postojati uslovi koje je potrebno prethodno ispuniti da bi se omogućilo onima koji nemaju sredjene javne finansije da iskoriste novac.   

Trezor Evropske komisije bi mogao da definiše uslove za zemlje koje ne poštuju propisane politike, a ispunjenje tih uslova bi provjeravale Evropska komisija i MMF prije isplate novca, kako bi se spriječilo aktiviranje garancija jednog dana.

Takva šema bi mogla umiriti tržišta i ponuditi dobar prostor za manevar zemljama koje bi mogle čak i bankrotirati, a da ne izazovu značajnije nove troškove za jake privrede.

Crni dug

Tokom 14. vijeka Evropu je poharala epidemija, koja je, naizgled, došla niotkud i iznenada uzela život svakom drugom stanovniku našeg kontinenta. Pojedini istoričari sugerišu da je jedan od razloga prethodni vjerski progon mačaka kao simbola loše sreće, što je omogućilo pacovima da šire bolest, a kugi da opstaje. Stanovništvu je trebalo više od jednog vijeka da se oporavi od tri godine terora, iako svijet više nikada nije bio isti. U tom trenutku, srednjovjekovnom društvu su nedostajali ne samo odgovori, već i prava pitanja o uzrocima pandemije; patnja koju je izazvala se puno puta pretvorila u fanatizam i brutalnost.

Za većinu građana danas, pandemija duga je došla jednako iznenada kao i ona koja se javila u srednjem vijeku. Privrede su oštećene globalnim padom aktivnosti, radna mjesta su ugašena, kreditne linije su implodirale, bilansi stanja su se raspali, jer je teret duga za domaćinstva, preduzeća i državni budžet postao nepodnošljiv – nivoi duga koji su nekada bili sasvim prihvatljivi su, iznenada, prerasli u prevelik zalogaj.

Naravno, dug samo po sebi nije neophodno loša stvar. Kada je dohodak nizak, potrošnja se mora održavati na visokom nivou, kako bi se pomoglo onim grupama stanovništva koje su najviše u stanju potrebe i kako bi se dodatno podstakla privredna aktivnost – to znači da je dug veći u apsolutnom iznosu. Konačno, neko mora platiti cijenu; političari i ekonomisti se moraju držati nade da će trenutak istine doći tek kada se privreda oporavi, kada će nekako moći da upravljaju čitavim procesom i izbjegnu najteže posljedice. Trenutno, čini se da se dužnička kriza u Evropi širi poput kuge – prvo prati pomorce i trgovce iz Sredozemlja. Evropi su sada potrebni saradnja i disciplina kako bi ukrotila napast i spriječila širenje zaraze na vitalne organe privrede ovog kontinenta. To će značiti i posvećivanje veće pažnje mačkama kao dugoročne preventive – strukturnim reformama i unapređenju poslovnog ambijenta uz finansijsku i fiskalnu stabilnost da bi se povratila konkurentnost.

Kritičari ekonomske politike često ne uzimaju u obzir da je rast duga u vrijeme krize praktično neizbježan. Učesnici ekonomske razmjene mrze fluktuacije; užurbano prilagođavanje novim okolnostima je uvijek bolno i skupo. Kada se struktura privrede mijenja preko noći, vlada mora pomoći svojim kredibilitetom i svojim (ograničenim) ovlašćenjem da organizuje.

Mala zemlja, poput Crne Gore, u velikoj mjeri se oslanja na kretanja globalne privrede. Uprkos ogromnom potencijalu za rast, fluktuacije nacionalnog dohotka su nepredvidljive, ali vlada mora spriječiti da se životni standard naših građana mijenja zajedno sa ovim podacima. Stoga ne možemo i ne smijemo smanjiti potrošnju srazmjerno padu dohotka i zato u nekim oblastima moramo proširiti potrošnju, čak i ako se moramo osloniti na naš kredibilitet i čvrstu vjeru da će do oporavka ipak doći. U periodu snažnog rasta, od 2006. do 2008. godine, vidjeli smo da se opterećenje dugom može lako smanjiti tokom dobrih vremena. Sada su vremena loša, ali naša disciplina će spriječiti da dug izmakne kontroli. Prema proračunima Ministarstva finansija, ove godine dostižemo najviši udio krizom uzrokovanog duga u ukupnom javnom dugu Crne Gore, od 45%, a čak i ove godine taj udio nije ni blizu udjela u većini evropskih zemalja (malo poređenje: u Njemačkoj i Velikoj Britaniji taj udio iznosi preko 70%, u SAD je blizu 100%, u Grčkoj je preko 130%). Da smo u Evropskoj uniji, fiskalna politika Crne Gore bi lako mogla poslužiti kao model. Od sledeće godine, procjenjujemo da će se nivo duga postepeno smanjivati i do 2015. godine dostići nivo koji je imao prije krize. Sadašnji podaci ukazuju da kuga zaduženosti neće doći do crnogorske obale. Do tada, moramo znati da je alternativa većem deficitu od uobičajenog i prihvatanju većeg nivoa duga na određeni vremenski rok primjena drastičnih smanjenja potrošnje i rast poreza, koji bi poboljšali fiskalne rezultate, ali i ozbiljno ozlijediti samo tkivo društva. Da li bi oni koji predlažu hitno smanjenje deficita primijenili takve mjere strogoće bez presedana? Čisto sumnjam.

Nivo duga u odnosu na BDP, prikazan na vremenskoj skali (*: projekcije)

Važna je lekcija koju smo naučili kroz istoriju, da se Crna smrt ne pobjeđuje prvenstveno snagom modernih antibiotika: prelomna tačka u borbi dogodila se mnogo prije revolucije u medicine. Neki istoričari tvrde da je kuga zaustavljena redom. Prijetnja koju je kuga postavila pred društvo je polako, ali nepovratno, dovela do revolucije u pristupu upravljanju. Ispostavilo se da se epidemija, čak i ako se ne zna njen uzrok, jedino može zaustaviti boljom organizacijom, boljim institucijama i mjerama za unapređenje javne čistoće. Do zaraza bi opet došlo s vremena na vrijeme, ali Evropa u cjelini je postala sigurnije mjesto za život.

Trenutna zaraza dugom će sigurno ući u udžbenike iz istorije i postati loša uspomena i dobra lekcija. Ekonomisti će znati gdje je svijet pogriješio i šta se pokazalo kao bezbjedan izlaz. Autori udžbenika iz ekonomije dugovaće onim zemljama čija se fiskalna politika u recesiji može citirati kao primjer dobre prakse. Nadam se da će Crna Gora biti obuhvaćena jednim od tih poglavlja.

The Black Debt

During the 14^th century the population of Europe was decimated by an epidemic that seemed to come out of nowhere and all of a sudden took the life of every second person on our continent. Some historians suggest it was due to the religious prosecution of cats as symbols of bad luck and devilry that had taken place beforehand so rats could spread disease and plague could fester. The population needed more than a century to recover from the three years of terror, but the world would never be the same again. At that point, medieval society lacked not only the answers, but even the correct questions about the causes of the pandemic; its distress many times turned into fanaticism and acts of pure brutality.

For most people today’s debt pandemic came as suddenly as of the one during the Middle Ages. Economies were damaged by the global downturn, jobs disappeared, credit lines imploded, balance sheets collapsed as the burden of the debt on households, firms and state budgets became unbearable – debt levels that used to be easily manageable then suddenly started to seem simply too much.

Of course, debt in itself is not necessarily bad. When income is low expenditure has to be kept high in order to help the neediest in society and give an extra boost to the economy – that means more debt in absolute terms. When the level of domestic production falls, the relative burden of public liabilities grows – that means more debt in relative terms. Eventually someone has to pay the price; politicians and economists have to cling to the hope that the moment of truth will come only when the economy is back on track, and they can somehow handle the process to avoid hard landings. As for now, debt crises in Europe seem to spread as the plague did when it appeared – first following the path of Mediterranean sailors and merchants. Now Europe needs cooperation and discipline to contain the menace and prevent the disease from reaching the continental economy’s vital organs. It also takes breeding cats as a long-term prevention – structural reforms and the improvement of the business environment to regain competitiveness along with financial and fiscal stability.

Critics of economic policy often fail to take into consideration that a growth of debt in times of crisis is virtually inevitable.  Economic agents hate fluctuations; hurried adaptation to new circumstances is always painful and costly. When the shape of the economy is changing overnight, the government has to step in with its credibility and its (limited) power to organize.

A small country, like Montenegro, relies very heavily on movements in the global economy. Despite the tremendous underlying growth potential, fluctuations in our national income are volatile, but the government has to prevent the living standards of our citizens moving together with those figures. That is why we cannot and should not cut expenditure in line with the decrease in income on a one-to-one basis, and that is why in some areas we have to extend spending even if we have to rely on our credibility and the firm belief that recovery will eventually come. We have seen in the boom of 2006-2008 that the debt burden can easily be reduced in good times. Now there are bad times, but our discipline will prevent the debt from getting out of control. According to calculations carried out by the Ministry of Finance, this year we are experiencing the peak in the crisis-related growth in Montenegrin public debt at 45% and even this year it will be nowhere near most European countries (short comparison: Germany and the UK are over 70%, the United States is approaching 100%, Greece is over 130%). If we were in the European Union, Montenegrin fiscal policy could easily have been held up as a model. From next year onwards, we estimate that the debt level will gradually decline, reaching its pre-crisis level as early as 2015. Present data suggest that the plague of indebtedness will not reach the Montenegrin shore. Until then one should know that the alternative to running larger than usual deficits and accepting a larger debt level for a limited period of time is implementing drastic expenditure cuts and tax hikes that would improve fiscal numbers but seriously bruise the fabric of society. Would those who propose immediate deficit cuts undertake such unprecedented austerity measures? I doubt it.

Level of the debt to GDP ratio over time (*: projected data)

It is an important lesson from history, that the Black Death was primarily not defeated by the power of modern antibiotics: the turning point in the battle happened well before the revolution of medical science. Some historians argue that the plague was countered with order. The threat that the plague posed to society slowly but irrevocably revolutionized the way governance worked. It turned out that the epidemic could be contained even without knowing what caused it by better organization, better institutions and measures to improve public sanitation. Disease outbreaks would happen again from time to time, but Europe as a whole became a safer place to be.

Today’s debt plague will surely go down into the history books and become a bad memory and a good lesson to learn.  Economists will know what the world did wrong and what proved to be the safe way out. Writers of economics textbooks will be indebted to those countries whose fiscal policy in recession can be quoted as a case study for good practice. I hope Montenegro will be included in one of those chapters.

Neočekivani nalet optimizma?

Nedavno sam imao priliku da učestvujem u panel diskusiji pred najznamenitijom publikom u Beču, koji se te nedjelje pretvorio u Davos, jer je bio domaćin sastanka Svjetskog ekonomskog foruma. Ova izuzetna organizacija ima za cilj da okupi svjetske političke, biznis i intelektualne lidere, kako bi porazgovarali o trenutnim pitanjima globalne privrede i o našim društvima. Bilo je to jako podsticajno iskustvo; svaka riječ nosi posebnu težinu kada je publika, bilo ekonomski ili politički, odgovorna za tako veliki dio svjetskog BDP-a.

Dok je trebalo da razgovaramo o budućnosti Evrope, prognoze su teško mogle biti mračnije: Austrija je privremeno ponovo uvela graničnu kontrolu i suspendovala primjenu Šengena, kako bi osigurala bezbjednost ovog skupa. Šengenski sporazum, samo eliminisanje unutrašnjih granica Evrope i zajednička evropska valuta predstavljaju dva najspektakularnija dostignuća evropskih integracija. Bio sam tamo, u Beču, granice su ponovo bile oko nas, a mi smo došli da razgovaramo o šansama za preživljavanje eura, usred svih vijesti koje se svakodnevno javljaju o krizi duga u monetarnoj uniji. Pa, nisam očekivao da će se razgovor razvijati u tako optimističnom smjeru kako se na kraju ispostavilo.  

Moj panel je nazvan “Stres test za Evropu”, a ljudi sa kojima sam sjedio bili su oštroumni stručnjak za vanjsku politiku iz Velike Britanije, finansijski ekspert iz Italije i uvaženi holandski ekonomista, od kojih je samo ovaj poslednji imao iznad 40. Kako se bližio kraj naših pedeset i nešto minuta pod reflektorima, moderator, iz Asošijeted presa, je rekao da je iznenađen (a možda pomalo i razočaran) što nismo predstavili naše scenarije sudnjeg dana i izrekli kobna proročanstva.

Zapravo, došao sam sa stavom da problem Evrope nije ekonomija, već nešto drugo – što je na određeni način bila dobra vijest (jer se ekonomije skoro uvijek sporo i bolno oporavljaju od velikih potresa), ali je s druge strane bila i loša vijest, jer da bi se našao lijek, građani prvo moraju da se dogovore oko dijagnoze. Mislim da je Evropa izložena riziku od stresa, kako se navodi i u samom nazivu ovog panela, i to ne toliko finansijski, već u smislu vizionarske moći i političkog liderstva. Osnove su netaknute; istorija jednostavno zahtijeva od Evrope da prati zajednički ritam: da bira jedinstvo, inovacije i konkurentnost, umjesto razdora, uznemirenosti i zaostajanja.    

Iako je svako od nas to formulisao u skladu sa svojom temom, svi smo se složili oko glavne poruke. Došlo se do vrlo korisnih razmišljanja: pomenuto je da je glavni problem politički legitimitet, da bi lideri trebalo da riješe ekonomsku krizu bez jasnog političkog mandata i da oni ne uspijevaju da prikažu moguća rješenja glasačima, koji na kraju treba da plate tu cijenu. Ljudi stalno govore o krizi u Evropi, a problem duga pogađa dio Evrope čija ekonomska važnost predstavlja procentualni udio u ekonomiji Evropske unije koji je otprilike jednak uticaju države Vajoming na Sjedinjene američke države u cjelini. Bogatstvo koje je izloženo riziku je neuporedivo sa bogatstvom koje stvara zajedničko tržište. Ukratko: sve brojke pokazuju da je Evropa jaka. Ona predstavlja najveće tržište, kao i “klub” najrazvijenijih društava. Ekonomija se može srediti u kratkom roku, ali je Evropi dugoročnije posmatrano potrebna vizija zajedničke budućnosti. Otvorenija Evropa, gdje se odluke ne donose na teret glasača; moguće politike su jako dobro objašnjene glasačima, koji donose konačnu odluku. Evropa, koja kao politička zajednica nezavisnih nacija može da pokaže zajedničku ekonomsku snagu na svjetskoj političkoj sceni. To je ono što su ljudi na panelu predvidjeli i, što je još važnije, to je ono što očekuju. To je Evropa kakvoj Crna Gora želi da se priključi. I to je Evropa kakvoj Crna Gora želi da da svoj doprinos, kroz svoje ekonomske performanse, kao i kroz društvene i kulturne vrijednosti. Samo snažnija i otvorenija Crna Gora može biti snažan partner otvorenijoj Evropi. Stoga moramo restrukturirati naše društvo, kroz sprovođenje reformi i jačanje naše konkurentnosti.

     

Na neki način, mi otklanjamo sumnje Evropi u ovim teškim vremenima. Činjenica da to želimo i da ćemo se pridružiti ovom klubu, pokazuje im da su još uvijek zajednica koja nudi brojne prednosti svojim članicama, u smislu mirnog suživota, kulturnog bogatstva i ekonomskog napretka. S obzirom da viši cilj mirnog ujedinjenja nacija Evrope još uvijek nije u potpunosti ostvaren, proširenje predstavlja suštinski znak života evropskih integracija. A sa napretkom koji je ostvarila Hrvatska, sa obnavljanjem nada Srbije da će steći status kandidata do kraja ove godine, i naravno, sa potvrdom da pregovori sa Crnom Gorom o pristupanju mogu ubrzo otpočeti, Evropa je pokazala da je i dalje vitalna. Optimizam po pitanju zajedničke budućnosti je više nego opravdan.

An Unexpected Surge of Optimism?

Recently I had the opportunity to participate in a panel talk in front of a most illustrious audience in Vienna, which became Davos for that week as it hosted a session of the World Economic Forum. This extraordinary organization aims to bring together world political, business and intellectual leaders to discuss contemporary matters of the global economy and our societies. It was a very stimulating experience: every word has a special weight when the audience is responsible for such a big chunk of the world’s GDP, either economically or politically.

As we were supposed to talk about the future of Europe, the omens could hardly have been any gloomier: Austria temporarily reinitiated border control suspending the Schengen practice, in order to ensure the security of the event. The Treaty of Schengen, the actual elimination of the internal borders of Europe and the common European currency are the two most spectacular accomplishments of the European integration. I was there in Vienna, the borders were back around us, and we came to discuss the chances of survival of the Euro amidst all news coming up on a daily basis about the debt crises of the monetary union. Well, I would not have expected the talk to go in the optimistic way it did eventually.

My panel was called “Stress test for Europe”, and the people I sat with included a bright foreign policy expert from Britain, an Italian financial expert and a renowned Dutch economist, of whom only the latter was over his forties. As the end of the fifty-something minutes under the spotlight drew closer, the moderator, representing Associated Press, expressed his surprise (flavoured probably with a tiny bit of disappointment) that we did not bring up our own doomsday scenarios and sinister prophecies.

In fact I came with the opinion that the problem of Europe is not the economy, it is something else – which is in one sense good news (as economies almost always heal slowly and painfully from big busts), but in other sense it is bad, as in order to provide a remedy, people first have to settle over the diagnose. I think Europe is stress-tested, as the name of the panel suggested, not much in a financial way, but in terms of visionary power and political leadership. The fundamentals are intact; history just requires Europe to follow a common rhythm: choose unity, innovation and competitiveness over dissension, anxiety and falling behind.

Though each of us formulated it according to his own subject, we were in agreement over the main message. Very valuable thoughts were developed: It was mentioned that the main problem is political legitimacy, that leaders are supposed to solve an economic distress without a clear political mandate and they fail to outline the possible choices to the voters who are supposed to pay the costs eventually. People keep talking about a crisis of Europe when the debt problem affects a part of Europe whose economic weight accounts for a proportion of the EU’s economy similar to that of the state of Wyoming to the United States. The wealth at stake is incomparable to the wealth created by the common market. In sum: all numbers say that Europe is strong. It is the biggest market, and a “club” of the most developed societies. The economy can be fixed on the short term, but what Europe needs on the long term is a vision for a common future. A more open Europe, where decisions are not made over voters’ heads; policy choices are very well explained to voters who make the final calls. A Europe, which as a political community of independent nations can live up to its joint economic strength on the world political scene. This is what people at the panel envisaged, and, which is more, expected. This is the kind of Europe Montenegro wants to join. And this is the kind of Europe Montenegro wants to contribute to through its economical performance, and social and cultural values. Only a stronger and more open Montenegro can be a strong part of a more open Europe. That’s why we have to restructure our society by implementing reforms and strengthening our competitiveness.

In one sense we are reassuring Europe in these hard times. The fact that we want to, and will join the club shows them that they still are a community which offers enormous advantages to its members, in terms of peaceful coexistence, cultural richness and economic progress. As the great goal of peacefully bringing together the nations of Europe is not yet achieved entirely, enlargement is a genuine vital sign of the European integration. Now with the progress Croatia made, the renewal of Serbian hopes to get candidate status by the end of the year, and of course, with the confirmation that accession talks with Montenegro may start very soon, Europe has shown its vitality. Optimism about the common future is more than justified.

Popis stanovništva: Evropskim standardima protiv “usađenog nepovjerenja”

Kao ekonomista, još sam na fakultetu naučio da se dobre političke odluke moraju zasnivati na pouzdanim podacima. Iako sam zagovornik kvalitativne analize da bi predvidjeli mogući ishod određene odluke, često je potrebno osloniti se na obilje podataka koji odražavaju bogatstvo, ukuse, navike ili broj stanovnika. Razumijevanje sklonosti naših građana je suština. Popis je upravo proistekao iz ove potrebe za procjenom. Dugoročno gledano, bilo bi nemoguće osmisliti fer pravila ili čak odgovarajući budžet bez popisnih podataka.

Crna Gora je započela svoj prvi popis stanovništva od ponovnog sticanja nezavisnosti. Ne mogu opisati koliko je ovo značajan momenat za Crnu Goru. Naveo bih samo jedan primjer. Danas se u najvećoj mjeri uspješnost funkcionisanja jedne države utvrđuje na osnovu promjena makroekonomskih indikatora, kao što je BDP po glavi stanovnika, stopa zaposlenosti ili nezaposlenosti. Stoga, kako bi sve te pokazatelje pravilno procijenili, morate raspolagati određenim podacima, na primjer, koliko ljudi živi unutar granica, kao i broj radno aktivnog stanovništva. U nedostatku pouzdanih podataka, moramo se osloniti samo na procjene demografskih kretanja, ali postoji velika vjerovatnoća da nas to odvede na pogrešan put.

Ipak, neki građani su zabrinuti zbog popisa. Ukoliko je neko zabrinut, on postaje obazriviji nego inače. Ovo je idealna prilika da se pojedine političke platforme okoriste lažnim tvrdnjama. Ali sa druge strane, to je i idealna prilika za nas da opovrgnemo te pogrešne tvrdnje.

Prvo i najvažnije: popis je alatka koja se koristi u statističke svrhe u cilju poboljšanja rada države (i samih istraživača, u stvari) obezbjeđivanjem neophodnih podataka za ekonomsku, socijalnu i sve ostale politike. Kako ćemo znati gdje da izgradimo novu školu ako ne znamo kolika je gustina naseljenosti i koliko je djece? Dobra statistika potvrđuje koliko su se određene političke odluke pokazale ispravnim u praksi i obezbjeđuje stručna znanja. U nedostatku adekvatnih podataka; sve odluke zavise od političkih lobija.

Drugo: ruke MONSTAT-a su potpuno vezane međunarodnim statističkim standardima, metodologijom Eurostat – a, preporukama UN – a i činjenicom da njegov rad prate nezavisni subjekti. Argumenti da se iza aktivnosti MONSTAT –a krije prevara, značili bi da je Evropa odobrila tu istu prevaru. Kao što MONSTAT sa pravom ističe: „popis ne predstavlja zavjeru za stvaranje orvelovske tiranije”. Istovremeno, svjestan sam da je premijer koji negira teoriju zavjere upravo premijer kakvog ljudi koji se bave teorijom zavjere najviše vole. „Zar ne vidite? On to negira!”

Ostavimo to po strani i pređimo na stvar! Većina političkih kritika u vezi sa popisom odnosi se na pitanja u kojima građani treba da se izjasne o svojoj nacionalnoj pripadnosti i vjeroispovjesti. Mi, manje srećni Evropljani i naš kontinent bili smo svjedoci etničkog nasilja i najgorih slučajeva zloupotrebe političke vlasti. „Usađeno nepovjerenje” je eufemizam kada nepoznati ljudi kucaju na naša vrata i postavljaju pitanja o nacionalnoj pripadnosti i vjeroispovjesti. Ipak, upitnici većine zemalja Evrope koje ove godine sprovode popis stanovništva, takođe, sadrže, ovu vrstu pitanja, i to ne samo zemlje zapadne Evrope već post-tranzicione demokratije kao što su Mađarska, Bugarska, Ruminija, Češka, Slovačka i Litvanija. Zašto? Ako ja ističem da sam Crnogorac, koji govori crnogorski i pravoslavne je vjeroispovjesti, onda to kažem jer se osjećam tako, a ne da bih promovisao prikupljanje podataka koji imaju za cilj zloupotrebu građana. Ukoliko ne želite da date te informacije, izaberite odgovor koji upravo to govori. Od vas se traži da to učinite kako niko ne bi bio u prilici da odgovori na pitanje na koje vi ne želite da odgovorite. I upravo zbog toga svaki građanin dobija potpisani primjerak upitnika popisa na samom kraju popisivanja. Kada je rađen posljednji popis u našoj zemlji, svaki dvadeseti Crnogorac je odlučio da ne odgovori na ova pitanja, i oni nisu pretrpjeli nikakve posljedice zbog takve odluke.

I poslednja stvar, ali ne manje važna. Pitanja koja su pokrenula najveću političku debatu nisu jedina i čak ni najbitnija pitanja na listi. Upitnik sadrži pitanja koja se odnose na uslove za život, zaposlenost, zdravstvo, energetstku efikasnost, obrazovanje, jer su sva ova pitanja važna za postizanje prosperitetnije budućnosti naše zemlje. Popis je od primarnog interesa za građane Crne Gore, a ne za državu i političare.